My Preferred Twins Opening Day Lineup

With spring training just around the corner, I thought I'd share my thoughts on how I would set things up if I had any say.  A lot is going to change before the season starts but these would be the front-runners in my mind.

CF Byron Buxton
1B Joe Mauer
2B Brian Dozier
RF/DH Miguel Sano
3B Trevor Plouffe
LF Eddie Rosario
DH/RF Oswaldo Arcia
SS Eduardo Escobar
C John Ryan Murhpy

The biggest omission here is likely Byung-Ho Park, who is projected by most to be the everyday DH for the Twins this year.  More than likely he will be but I'm not going to hand him the job before he's ever had an at-bat in this hemisphere.  Giving him a month or two in AAA seems like a smart thing to me even though it probably won't happen.

Why is Buxton my lead-off hitter?  Well, he's batted there for the majority of his minor league career and the Twins really don't have another good option.  Relax, he's not Aaron Hicks.  He'll do fine.  If Buxton isn't ready Danny Santanna can probably get the job done offensively but the defense takes a huge hit.

Why bat Mauer ahead of Dozier?  Umm, because Mauer is better at getting on base and Dozier hits for more power...this seems like a no-brainer to me.  This probably won't happen either but it makes complete sense in my head.

Why do I like Arcia?  Well, 36 home runs in 781 at-bats is a pretty decent start.  In a full season that's 27 home runs with a .243/.305/.437 batting line.  On top of that he's out of options and it would be nice to see what the Twins have before they give up on him and Boston signs him to a one-year minimum salary contract (see David Ortiz, 2003).  Kennys Vargas and Carlos Quentin will also be in the competition for the DH along with Park.

Starting Rotation:

1. Ervin Santana
2. Phil Hughes
3. Kyle Gibson
4. Ricky Nolasco
5. Tyler Duffey

Ervin Santana was lights out over his last seven starts to lower his ERA from 6.05 to 4.00.  I'm chalking the rough start to a little rust and I do believe that Santana will be the Twins best starter until Jose Berrios shows up.  But if I was doing predictions I'd say both Hughes and Gibson have better chances to be the opening day starter.

Duffey is probably a better pitcher than Nolasco but I prefer to have Duffey has my fifth starter just to limit his innings a little in his first full season in the majors.  He was solid in his rookie debut but he still has a lot to learn.  Tommy Milone has a decent chance to steal a rotation spot but if he does end up in the bullpen I'd prefer to leave him there and call up Berrios when the Twins need a replacement in-season.

Feel free to criticize anything I've said here, but remember, these are not predictions, just what I would do if I were in charge.

Week 15 Relief Rankings

I may be wrong, but I still think Kimbrel is your best bet for continued success both now and in the future.  Kimbrel currently sits at 13th on the player rater and his K/9 rate is slightly down (13.21) so it may be time for a new king, I'm just not sure.  If you have strong inclinations towards a new number one, please post your argument below.

I'm also gonna go out on a limb and say that Wilhelmsen has been reinstated back as the team's closer, after being given two of the Mariner's last three save opportunities and only giving up one hit in his last six appearances.  Perez may steal a save from time to time, but the bartender should get most.

Joakim Soria has returned and should eventually take over as the first or second best option behind Joe Nathan, meaning that there will probably not be enough hold opportunities for Robbie Ross to sustain his value despite being the 41st best reliever on the player rater.

Red and Green represents a significant change in ranking.  The 30 closers are in bold.

1. Craig Kimbrel, Atl 
2. Joe Nathan, Tex
3. Mariano Rivera, NYY
4. Aroldis Chapman, Cin
5. Kenley Jansen, LAD
6. Mark Melancon, Pit
7. David Robertson, NYY
8. Greg Holland, KC
9. Jonathan Papelbon, Phi
10. Glen Perkins, Min
11. Jason Grilli, Pit
12. Grant Balfour, Oak
13. Rafael Soriano, Was
14. Trevor Rosenthal, Stl
15. Sergio Romo, SF
16. Ernesto Frieri, LAA
17. Casey Janssen, Tor
18. Edward Mujica, Stl
19. Koji Uehara, Bos
20. Rex Brothers, Col
21. Jim Johnson, Bal
22. Addison Reed, CWS
23. Tyler Clippard, Was
24. Luke Gregerson, SD
25. Rafael Betancourt, Col
26. Joaquin Benoit, Det
27. Fernando Rodney, TB
28. Steve Cishek, Mia
29. Tanner Scheppers, Tex
30. Huston Street, SD
31. Bobby Parnell, NYM
32. Tommy Hunter, Bal
33. Jose Veras, Hou
34. J.J. Putz, Ari
35. Junichi Tazawa, Bos
36. Tom Wilhelmsen, Sea
37. Ryan Cook, Oak
38. Joel Peralta, TB
39. Jordan Walden, Atl
40. Chris Perez, Cle
41. Jared Burton, Min
42. Jake McGee, TB
43. Kevin Gregg, ChC
44. Aaron Crow, KC
45. John Axford, Mil
46. Francisco Rodriguez, Mil
47. Vinnie Pestano, Cle
48. Oliver Perez, Sea
49. Darren O'Day, Bal
50. Drew Smyly, Det
51. Matt Thornton, CWS
52. Joe Smith, Cle
53. Drew Storen, Was
54. Jim Henderson, Mil
55. Brett Cecil, Tor
56. Luis Avilan, Atl
57. David Hernandez, Ari
58. Andrew Bailey, Bos
59. Heath Bell, Ari
60. Dale Thayer, SD
61. Neil Cotts, Tex
62. Brad Ziegler, Ari
63. Scott Downs, LAA
64. Kevin Jepsen, LAA
65. Sean Doolittle, Oak
66. Blake Parker, ChC
67. Paco Rodriguez, LAD
68. Yoervis Medina, Sea
69. Tony Watson, Pit
70. Steve Delabar, Tor
71. Jeremy Affeldt, SF
72. Mike Dunn, Mia
73. Casey Fien, Min
74. Joakim Soria, Tex
75. Jose Cisnero, Hou

On the bubble:  David Aardsma (NYM), Antonio Bastardo (Phi), Jerry Blevins (Oak), Tim Collins (KC), Dane De La Rosa (LAA), Charlie Furbush (Sea), Nate Jones (CWS), Aaron Loup (Tor), J.C. Ramriez (Phi), James Russell (ChC), Bruce Rondon (Det), Robbie Ross (Tex), Alfredo Simon (Cin), Joe Thatcher (SD), Caleb Thielbar (Min), Justin Wilson (Pit)

 

Top 10 Inactive Pitchers (expected return in parenthesis)

1. Santiago Casilla, SF (early July)
2. Stephen Pryor, Sea (July)
3. Jesse Crain, CWS (unknown)
4. Sean Marshall, Cin (July)
5. Ryan Madson, LAA (late July)
6. Sergio Santos, Tor (late July)
7. Jonathan Broxton, Cin (unknown)
8. Frank Francisco, NYM (July)
9. Kelvin Herrera, KC (minors)
10. Brett Myers, Cle (unknown)