It's time to mock!

Draft time is coming close so it's time to get in on some mock drafts so you can be prepared for your draft.  Trust me, just having a good set of rankings isn't enough.  Problem is I haven't been able to find any mock drafts that account for 6x6 leagues so getting a gauge of how your 6x6 draft is going to run can be hard.  This why I have decided to set up some mock drafts on Mock Draft Central.

For now I am going to do a 14-team league on Friday afternoon and a 16-team league on Saturday afternoon.  For now, there's no bench and a deep roster, but that can change.  I have no idea how much interest there will be so you may need to sign up right away or you may be able to get away with getting in right before the draft.  If there's lots of interest I can always set up more.

Our overall rankings should be out within a week so feel free to use them as your default rankings in the mocks.  You won't want to use MDC's default rankings, even for a standard draft.

Registration is quick and easy and you can do three free drafts per week.  Hope to see you guys there!

Join Friday's draft here.
Join Saturday's draft here.

Relief Pitcher Rankings

Here are your top 75 relief pitchers from last year.  Excluded are any pitchers that are expected to be starting.

1. Fernando Rodney (10.42)
2. Craig Kimbrel (10.01)**
3. Jason Motte (7.81)**
4. Ryan Cook (7.74)
5. Kenley Jansen (7.45)*
6. Jim Johnson (7.44)**
7. Grant Balfour (7.29)**
8. Jonathan Papelbon (7.14)**
9. Sergio Romo (7.14)**
10. Rafael Soriano (6.79)
11. Tom Wilhelmsen (6.61)
12. Ernesto Frieri (6.55)
13. Vinnie Pestano (6.35)*
14. Mitchell Boggs (6.33)
15. Joel Peralta (6.07)*
16. Tyler Clippard (6.01)**
17. Joe Nathan (6.00)
18. Santiago Casilla (5.75)
19. David Hernandez (5.69)**
20. Luke Gregerson (5.65)
21. Ronald Belisario (5.59)
22. Jake McGee (5.47)
23. Sean Marshall (5.34)**
24. Glen Perkins (5.20)*
25. Joel Hanrahan (5.19)**
26. Joaquin Benoit (5.11)*
27. Jason Grilli (5.02)
28. Jonathan Broxton (4.97)
29. David Robertson (4.90)**
30. Darren O'Day (4.86)
31. Jared Burton (4.84)
32. Casey Janssen (4.62)*
33. J.J. Putz (4.60)**
34. Kelvin Herrera (4.59)
35. Eric O'Flaherty (4.59)**
36. Wilton Lopez (4.53)
37. Chris Perez (4.43)*
38. Edward Mujica (4.33)*
39. Sean Burnett (4.29)
40. Bobby Parnell (4.23)
41. Steve Cishek (4.21)
42. Rafael Betancourt (4.21)**
43. Huston Street (4.16)*
44. Greg Holland (4.15)**
45. Pedro Strop (4.01)
46. Joe Smith (3.95)
47. John Axford (3.85)**
48. Jose Valverde (3.83)**
49. Craig Stammen (3.75)
50. Brad Ziegler (3.74)
51. Matt Thornton (3.72)
52. Darren Oliver (3.63)*
53. Dale Thayer (3.55)
54. Jerry Blevins (3.49)
55. Francisco Rodriguez (3.34)**
56. Boone Logan (3.15)
57. Ryan Mattheus (3.12)
58. Mike Adams (3.10)**
59. Matt Belisle (3.08)*
60. Scott Downs (3.01)**
61. Jon Rauch (2.93)
62. Aaron Crow (2.92)
63. Antonio Bastardo (2.80)**
64. Sean Doolittle (2.69)
65. Addison Reed (2.63)
66. Tony Watson (2.56)
67. Jose Mijares (2.56)
68. Steve Delabar (2.53)
69. Josh Lindblom (2.50)

Of the top 30 pitchers in 2011, nine (30%) did not finish in the top 75 this year.  Those names are Jonny Venters, Drew Storen, Mariano Rivera, Fernando Salas, Francisco Cordero, Daniel Bard, Heath Bell, Koji Uehara, and Alfredo Aceves.  I have full confidence in Storen and Rivera bouncing back, and less confidence in the others.  ** indicates a player was in the top 30 last year and * indicates a player was in the top 75 last year.  What's clear to me is that you can't trust previous performance as a solid indicator of future  success.  All we can do is make an educated guess based on previous track record and expected opportunities and keep a close eye as the season progresses.  It's entirely possible your best reliever will come as a mid-season pick-up like Ernest Frieri and Mitchell Boggs were last year.

Tier 1 - Craig Kimbrel
  I don't think there's any legit argument that he's the best closer in the league and there's no one else that's close, outside of a younger Rivera.

Tier 2- Kenley Jansen, Mariano Rivera, Jason Motte, Fernando Rodney, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Rafael Soriano
  One elite set-up guy and the best group of closers in the game.  You'll have to pay a dear price on draft day and it might not be worth it because more than likely at least two of these pitchers won't finish in the top 30.

Tier 3 - Jonny Venters, David Robertson, Greg Holland, John Axford, Huston Street, Ernesto Frieri, Sergio Romo, Jim Johnson, Drew Storen
  The difference between these guys and the next group of guys is simply my confidence level.  All these guys have had more than one solid year in their career and are in a great position to continue their success.

Tier 4 - Vinnie Pestano, Glen Perkins, Ryan Cook, Tom Wilhelmsen, J.J. Putz, David Hernandez, Andrew Bailey, Grant Balfour, Mike Adams, Addison Reed
  Cook, Wilhelmsen, and Reed have one solid year on their resume.  There's also some age and injury concerns here, but there's enough talent and opportunity that this group needs to be separated from those below.  Hernandez would easily have made the tier above if it wasn't for Heath Bell; I just don't know what's going to happen there.

Tier 5 - Jonathan Broxton, Tyler Clippard, Luke Gregerson, Sean Marshall, Chris Perez, Joel Hanrahan, , Brandon League, Kyuji Fujikawa, Koji Uehara, Rafael Betancourt, Jason Grilli, Sergio Santos, Bruce Rondon, Casey Janssen, Steve Cishek
  In an auction league, this is the group of guys I'm targeting to nab for a dollar or two.  None of the closers here have great job security, but should still provide solid value.

Tier 6 - Ryan Madson, Jared Burton, Santiago Casilla, Eric O'Flaherty, Bobby Parnell, Brian Wilson, Carlos Marmol, Jake McGee, Kelvin Herrera, Joel Peralta, Matt Thornton, Jose Veras, Joaquin Benoit, Stephen Pryor, Frank Francisco, Heath Bell, Jose Valverde, Carter Capps, Dale Thayer, Jon Rauch, Joba Chamberlain
  On a year-to-year basis, there's going to be a lot of variance in the value of these players.  There's potential to get a solid amount of saves or holds, but also risk that they could struggle or not be in a good enough situation.

Once the season starts, we plan on updating our relief rankings every week to account for the constant fluctuation in value that happens at this position.

Starting Pitcher Rankings

I just realized there's really no point in doing rankings for starting pitchers because it is the only position where there is no difference between and 6x6 and a standard league.  The only thing to note would be that now starting pitchers affect four out of six categories (67%) instead of four out of five categories (80%) so overall they might be slightly less valuable.

Here are a few links I have used in deciding my starting pitcher rankings:

CBS Starting Pitcher Tiers
ESPN Starting Pitcher Rankings
Yahoo Starting Pitcher Rankings
RotoChamp Starting Pitcher Rankings

Outfield Rankings

In my previous posts a player only had to be off one spot from the standard player rater to earn a color change, but because of the vast amount of players I've decided to make it two spots for outfielders.  Italics indicates a player missed a significant portion of time.

1. Mike Trout (19.74)
2. Ryan Braun (19.43)
3. Andrew McCutchen (16.34)
4. Josh Hamilton (14.17)
5. Alex Rios (12.44)
6. Adam Jones (11.48)
7. Carlos Gonzalez (11.33)
8. Giancarlo Stanton (10.99)
9. Matt Holliday (10.84)
10. Melky Cabrera (10.06)
11. Carlos Beltran (9.63)
12. Josh Willingham (9.55)
13. Jason Heyward (9.55)
14. Austin Jackson (9.20)
15. Yoenis Cespedes (9.17)
16. Curtis Granderson (9.04)
17. Torii Hunter (8.87)
18. Jay Bruce (8.82)
19. Allen Craig (8.72)
20. Matt Kemp (8.53)
21. Shin-Soo Choo (8.47)
22. Corey Hart (8.38)
23. Michael Bourn (8.24)
24. Alex Gordon (8.10)
25. Ben zobrist (8.10)
26. Justin Upton (8.05)
27. Angel Pagan (8.03)
28. Alfonso Soriano (8.02)
29. Bryce Harper (7.99)
30. B.J. Upton (7.96)
31. Martin Prado (7.96)
32. Norichika Aoki (7.62)
33. Chris Davis (7.46)
34. Carlos Gomez (7.41)
35. Mark Trumbo (7.34)
36. Nick Swisher (7.12)
37. David Murphy (7.07)
38. Andre Ethier (6.92)
39. Dexter Fowler (6.92)
40. Garrett Jones (6.73)
41. Nelson Cruz (6.61)
42. Josh Reddick (6.51)
43. Jason Kubel (6.48)
44. Tyler Colvin (6.47)
45. Alejandro De Aza (6.24)
46. Coco Crisp (6.12)
47. Ryan Ludwick (6.11)
48. Ichiro Suzuki (5.84)
49. Hunter Pence (5.76)
50. Shane Victorino (5.71)
51. Rajai Davis (5.54)
52. Cody Ross (5.43)
53. Juan Pierre (5.30)
54. Jose Bautista (5.24)
55. Ben Revere (5.22)
56. Jon Jay (5.15)
57. Justin Ruggiano (5.04)
58. Brandon Moss (4.82)
59. Desmond Jennings (4.75)
60. Michael Saunders (4.67)
61. Nick Markakis (4.50)
62. Will Venable (4.35)
63. Michael Brantley (4.25)
64. Michael Morse (4.08)
65. Ryan Doumit (4.07)
66. Scott Hairston (4.07)
67. Dayan Viciedo (3.79)
68. Denard Span (3.73)
69. Chris Denorfia (3.66)
70. Michael Cuddyer (3.59)
71. Andy Dirks (3.52)
72. Jonny Gomes (3.08)
73. David DeJesus (2.85)
74. Delmon Young (2.51)
75. Carlos Quentin (2.48)
76. Gerardo Parra (2.45)
77. Jayson Werth (2.40)
78. Matt Joyce (2.22)
79. Raul Ibanez (2.12)
80. Cameron Maybin (2.08)

Onto our rankings.

Tier 1 - Mike Trout, Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen, Matt Kemp, Giancarlo Stanton

  This is the group of guys that I believe have a fair shot at being the top outfielder at the end of the season.  Every year for the past six years a different outfielder has finished on top and I would not be surprised to see it happen again.  The first three have already done it and are the front-runners, but anything can happen and usually does.

Tier 2 - Carlos Gonzalez, Jose Bautista, Josh Hamilton, Justin Upton, Jason Heyward
  It's a slight step down from the previous tier.  All of these guys have the ability to be first round talent, but don't pay for it.

Tier 3 - Bryce Harper, Adam Jones, Jay Bruce, Matt Holliday, Yoenis Cespedes, Jacoby Ellsbury

  All these guys have the potential to be an elite outfielder like the first two tiers but there's more risk.  Whether it's age, inexperience, or injury risk; they're only worth a pick if the price is right.

Tier 4 - Ben Zobrist, Allen Craig, Desmond Jennings, B.J. Upton, Josh Willingham, Alex Gordon, Michael Bourn, Shin-Soo Choo, Austin Jackson, Martin Prado, Carlos Beltran, Curtis Granderson
  You're probably gonna draft Zobrist as a middle-infielder and if that's the case I'm ok with taking him before 50.  The rest of these guys I'm willing to wait and see who's left, which is usually Willingham, and I'm perfectly happy with that.

Tier 5 - Alex Rios, Nelson Cruz, Jason Kubel, Mark Trumbo, Shane Victorino, Chris Davis

   None of these guys will be mistaken for 5-tool players, but they should give you a solid OPS and a good spot in the batting order to get the counting stats.

Tier 6 - Andre Ethier, Hunter Pence, Carl Crawford, Alejandro De Aza, Michael Morse, Torii Hunter, Nick Markakis, Josh Reddick, Brett Gardner, Michael Cuddyer

   Some of you may argue that one or some of these guys belong in the tier above but I see more risk.  Many of these guys have been in the top 30 before and it could happen again but there's clear downside as well.

Tier 7 - Ben Revere, Angel Pagan, Cameron Maybin, Lorenzo Cain, Nick Swisher, Melky Cabrera, Norichikia Aoki, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gomez, Wil Myers, Alfonso Soriano
   This is where we sacrifice some power to get some speed, or we go with some guys with big upside but also big risk.

Tier 8 - Coco Crisp, Ichiro Suzuki, Dayan Viciedo, Jayson Werth, Corey Hart, Garrett Jones, Colby Rasmus, Emilio Bonifacio, Jon Jay, Justin Ruggiano, Ryan Ludwick, Brandon Moss, Starling Marte, Michael Brantley, Logan Morrison, Adam Eaton, Darin Mastraoini, Lucas Duda

  There's going to be quite a bit of variance with guys in this group based on who you ask but this is the group of guys that Northrop and I could agree on the most.  Half of these guys were left off one of our initial rankings, but were high enough on the other's to make the cut.

Outfield is deep.  Unless you're in a crazy deep league you're always going to be able find somebody towards the end of your draft to fill your final outfield spot as there's at least a dozen guys I left off this list that are expected to get everyday at-bats and have some upside.  Be aware of guys that could get stuck in a platoon, although platoons aren't necessarily bad in leagues with OPS, and can be very beneficial if you have the bench space to mix and match.  As we progress through spring training these rankings are likely to change as battles are sorted out.

Rankings for starting and relieving pitchers will be posted later this week.

Shortstop Rankings

Welcome to the weakest position in all of baseball!  We start with what they did last year.  Green indicates a player's rank has increased from the standard player rater, red indicates a player's rank has decreased from the standard player rater, and italics indicates a player missed significant time last season.

1. Ian Desmond (9.69)
2. Jose Reyes (9.51)
3. Derek Jeter (8.81)
4. Ben Zobrist (8.10)
5. Starlin Castro (7.79)
6. Jimmy Rollins (7.76)
7. Hanley Ramirez (7.48)
8. Alcides Escobar (6.64)
9. Marco Scutaro (6.50)
10. Elvis Andrus (5.47)
11. Erick Aybar (4.90)
12. Asdrubal Cabrera (4.79)
13. Danny Espinosa (4.27)
14. Alexi Ramirez (2.99)
15. Everth Cabrera (2.69)
16. Mike Aviles (1.82)
17. Rafael Furcal (1.57)
18. J.J. Hardy (1.45)
19. Josh Rutledge (1.32)
20. Jed Lowrie (1.05)

I suppose it could be debated that the catcher position is weaker but I'd much prefer the 20th ranked catcher than what's at the end of this list.  Either way, you're only going to want one, and grabbing one early would probably be wise.

Tier 1 - Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes

  Tulo will be at the top of this list if he stays healthy.  Reyes has been at the top of this list for the past two years and now he moves to a hitter's division and a loaded lineup.  If you believe that Tulo has finally figured out how to stay healthy, by all means take him as the first shortstop.  If you still have doubts about that then take Reyes.  I still have doubts.

Tier 2 - Starlin Castro, Ben Zobrist, Hanley Ramirez
  Understand Zobrist's value is significatly better because of his OPS.  I would probably have him a tier lower in standard league.  Castro could easily outperform his 5th place ranking, while Hanley could easily falter some but he's still worth this spot based on what else is out there.  

Tier 3 - Elvis Andrus, Ian Desmond, Jimmy Rollins, Asdrubal Cabrera

  Northrop sees a huge drop-off between the previous tier and these guys.  Desmond did lead the position last year but few believe he can do it again.  I like the rest of these guys based on where they're being taken in drafts and I see the largest drop-off between these guys and the next tier.  It's perfectly ok to reach for one of these guys to avoid getting stuck with the next group of guys.

Tier 4 - J.J. Hardy, Danny Espinosa, Derek Jeter, Erick Aybar, Jed Lowrie, Alcides Escobar
  There's some big risk in this tier but there's also some rewards too.  Hardy, Espinosa, Jeter, and Lowrie have the ability to hit close to twenty home runs.  Aybar and Escobar should steal over twenty bases and are expected to hit towards the top of the order, although Escobar's ugly OBP has me scratching my head as to why.

Tier 5 - Andrelton Simmons, Marco Scutaro, Josh Rutledge
  With Simmons and Rutledge we haven't seen enough to know whether they belong in the class above or the class below but they're off to a decent start for their career.  With Scutaro, we've seen too much, but the investment the Giants made leads me to believe he still has a little bit left.

Tier 6 - Alexi Ramirez, Zack Cozart, Jean Segura, Dee Gordon, Everth Cabrera

  When filling my middle-infield spot, I would much rather take any of the players in the fifth tier of second basemen, so that's why I'm making a sixth tier for these guys.  These guys start at shortstop because of their glove first and foremost.  These young players might become great ball players as they mature, but they're unlikely to have much value in a league with OPS.

Look for my outfield rankings on Monday!

Third Base Rankings

It's probably not necessary to write the exact same thing at the beginning of each of these posts so we'll try out something a little different.  I'm doing tier rankings for all of the positions and if you disagree with me on any particular player it's probably because a) the player's value is significantly altered because of the OPS category b) you have no idea what you're talking about and you should take a look at what other experts are saying about the player or c) I am overlooking something and I need be corrected.  So by all means, please inform of any short sighting I may have.  I hate being wrong, but I hate even more when I'm wrong and nobody tells me.  I'm not claiming to be an expert here, just somebody with way too much free time and a passion for ranking things.

Before we start ranking players for this year, I believe it's really important to take a look at what was done last year.  Then from that point we decide whether a player can improve, put up similar numbers, or regress; and then we decide by how much and how much variance is possible.  It's really that simple.  But first we start with what they did last year. Green indicates a player's rank has increased from the standard player rater, red indicates a player's rank has decreased from the standard player rater, and italics indicates a player missed significant time last season.

1. Miguel Cabrera (18.62)
2. Adrian Beltre (13.51)
3. Chase Headley (12.76)
4. Aramis Ramirez (11.86)
5. David Wright (11.64)
6. Ryan Zimmerman (8.67)
7. Martin Prado (7.96)
8. Hanley Ramirez (7.48)
9. David Freese (7.05)
10. Alex Rodriguez (5.50)
11. Kyle Seager (5.09)
12. Pedro Alvarez (4.75)
13. Todd Frazier (4.62)
14. Chris Johnson (4.32)
15. Chipper Jones (4.24)
16. Jordan Pacheco (3.85)
17. Evan Longoria (3.84)
18. Brett Lawrie (3.70)
19. Jeff Keppinger (3.58)
20. Pablo Sandoval (3.42)
21. Chris Nelson (3.07)
22. Will Middlebrooks (3.04)
23. Mike Moustakas (2.54)
24. Michael Young (2.35)
25. Eric Chavez (2.11)
26. Trevor Plouffe (2.09)

ESPN projects Kevin Youkilis for a nice bounce-back season, hitting .271 with 83 runs, 21 HR and 84 RBI.   With those stats he would slot in at 10th, ahead of A-Rod and behind Freese.  I'm not buying it, even if he somehow manages to get a full-season of at-bats...  Pacheco and Nelson put up solid numbers in limited action, but I don't see one of them running away with the job.  It's a battle worth watching if you're in a deep league, but not worth investing in until you know...Hanley Ramirez hasn't put up a good OPS since 2009, so don't get too excited.  He's only worth a top 50 pick if you're going to use him as a shortstop.  Now to the tiers!

Tier 1- Miguel Cabrera

   So we're going to skip the argument of why he should be the top third baseman and go straight to why I'm taking him as my first pick overall.  Just because third is deeper this year does not make it as deep as the outfield or first base.  Factoring in position scarcity, ridiculous consistency, and the expected regression for Trout it just makes sense to me.  Trout was still number one last year (19.74), but it was closer than in a standard league and nobody is expecting Trout to match what he did last year.

Tier 2 - Evan Longoria, David Wright, Adrian Beltre

  Don't let age or injury history scare you, these guys will perform when they are on the field.  If you want Longo, you'll have to take him a round earlier but it's worth it.  The only thing keeping him out of being a first-round pick is the injury history.  Until he begins to show his age, I prefer Beltre over Wright, but age can be sneaky.

Tier 3 - Hanley Ramirez, Chase Headley, Brett Lawrie, Ryan Zimmerman, Pablo Sandoval, Martin Prado, Aramis Ramirez.

  I didn't put Sandoval in this tier; Northrop doesn't have Zimmerman or Ramirez in this tier; but it is what it is and all of these guys are worth taking in the top 100 picks.  Lawrie was one of many players to go through a sophomore slump, but his pedigree suggests he should improve greatly as he matures.  Headley, Zimmerman, Prado, and Aramis Ramirez had really solid seasons and if they can do it again you'll be getting great value.  Sandoval has been up and down his whole career but definitely has the ability to put up similar or better numbers than the rest of these guys.

Tier 4 - David Freese, Mike Moustakas, Manny Machado, Will Middlebrooks

  So here we have David Freese and some young players who haven't yet hit their prime.  Machado probably has the highest ceiling but he's so young there's just as good of a chance that he goes back to the minors than that he makes the top five.  Despite the injury history, Freese probably has the highest floor and he was MVP of the 2011 postseason.  You could easily argue that Kyle Seager belongs in this tier or that Middlebrooks belongs in the next tier, although Middlebrooks appears to have more upside right now.

Tier 5 - Kyle Seager, Pedro Alvarez, Todd Frazier, Michael Young, Kevin Youkilis, Trevor Plouffe, Jeff Keppinger.

  Here we have an interesting mixture or young question marks and old question marks.  Can Alvarez and Plouffe give us anything besides 20-30 HR?  Do Young and Youkilis have anything left in the tank?  Can Frazier's success continue?  I wish I could answer these questions for you.  You'll see Keppinger at the end of every base position I've posted and all I can tell you is that he should start most days at third for the White Sox.  He had a solid season last year but those numbers aren't inline with his career stats and he's only reached 500 at-bats once in his 8-year career.  What he does this year might be one the biggest mysteries of them all.

Shortstop rankings are coming out Friday morning and then my outfield rankings will take all weekend and will hopefully be ready for Monday morning.  I haven't decided how deep my outfield rankings will be yet so if you have any suggestions let me know.

~Antal

Second Base Rankings

One of the most important things to remember when drafting is to know when value for a certain position drops off dramatically.  If you go into the draft with a strategy of targeting specific players and doing the prep to know when you need to draft your favorite players so they can be on your team, you're likely going to end up losing value.  I like to know when I can get comparable value at a position multiple rounds later and when waiting a round or two could cost me significant value.  Today we look at second base.

First we start with what they did last year.  Green indicates a player's rank has increased from the standard player rater,  red indicates a player's rank has decreased from the standard player rater,and italics indicates a player missed a significant portion of the season.

1. Robinson Cano (13.49)
2. Aaron Hill (11.71)
3. Ben Zobrist (8.10)
4. Dustin Pedroia (7.83)
5. Ian Kinsler (6.97)
6. Brandon Phillips (6.96)
7. Jose Altuve (6.64)
8. Jason Kipnis (6.53)
9. Marco Scutaro (6.50)
10. Neil Walker (4.47)
11. Omar Infante (4.28)
12. Howard Kendrick (4.28)
13. Danny Espinosa (4.27)
14. Daniel Murphy (4.06)
15. Rickie Weeks (3.82)
16. Jeff Keppinger (3.58)
17. Chris Nelson (3.07)
18. Dan Uggla (2.50)
19. Chase Utley (2.47)
20. Kelly Johnson (1.17)

Tier 1 - Robinson Cano

  I've heard some fans of Cano talk about taking him number one overall, which seems ridiculous at first.  But when you look and the difference between Cano and the next guy who didn't have a ridiculously lucky season (sorry Hill, not gonna happen again), the gap is larger than any position outside of maybe third base, which we all know is much deeper.  Unless you really believe Cano can't put up similar numbers this year than he really needs to be in your top four overall.

Tier 2 - Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Ben Zobrist

  There may not have been a large gap between these three and the next tier last year, but these guys have proven reliable over the years and can be trusted to put up similar numbers or better.  If you don't want to worry about this position at all throughout the season draft one of these top four options and take your risks elsewhere.

Tier 3 - Brandon Philips, Jose Altuve, Jason Kipnis, Aaron Hill

  In a standard league, Kipnis probably belongs in the tier above, but his value is reduced significantly in this format.  If you miss out on one of the top four options I strongly consider grabbing one of these guys before things get Uggla ugly.

Tier 4 - Dan Uggla, Danny Espinosa, Howie Kendrick, Chase Utley, Rickie Weeks, Neil Walker, Dustin Ackley

  Some of these names are going to make you cringe based on what they did for you last year.  Some of them will bounce-back, others will not.  Don't say I didn't warn you!  My two bounce-back candidates are Utley and Weeks, who both posted about an .800 OPS after the all-star break.

Tier 5 - Jurickson Profar, Marco Scutaro, Daniel Murphy, Gordon Beckham, Omar Infante, Jeff Keppinger

  If you have the bench space to draft and stash one player, it should be Wil Myers.  If you miss out on him, you can grab Profar but understand there's no guarantee he plays half a season and gets 300+ at-bats to make it worthwhile.  The rest of the guys could get lucky and crack the top ten, but I see little upside and lots of downside.

Third base rankings should be out on Thursday.

~Antal

First Base Rankings

One of the most important things to remember when drafting is to know when value for a certain position drops off dramatically.  If you go into the draft with a strategy of targeting specific players and doing the prep to know when you need to draft your favorite players so they can be on your team, you're likely going to end up losing value.  I like to know when I can get comparable value at a position multiple rounds later and when waiting a round or two could cost me significant value.  Today we look at first base.

First we start with what they did last year.  Green indicates a player's rank has increased from the standard player rater,  red indicates a player's rank has decreased from the standard player rater,and italics indicates a player missed a significant portion of the season.  I'm leaving out catchers because you don't want to waste two roster spots on a significantly weaker offensive position.

1. Edwin Encarnacion (13.71)
2. Prince Fielder (12.57)
3. Billy Butler (11.31)
4. Albert Pujols (10.54)
5. Paul Goldschmidt (9.23)
6. Joey Votto (8.94)
7. Allen Craig (8.72)
8. Adam LaRoche (8.58)
9. Corey Hart (8.38)
10. Adrian Gonzalez (8.19)
11. Paul Konerko (7.76)
12. Chris Davis (7.46)
13. Mark Trumbo (7.34)
14. Nick Swisher (7.12)
15. Garrett Jones (6.73)
16. Tyler Colvin (6.47)
17. Freddie Freeman (6.29)
18. Adam Dunn (5.54)
19. Mark Teixeira (4.86)
20. Brandon Moss (4.82)
21. Todd Frazier (4.62)
22. Kendrys Morales (4.60)
23. Justin Morneau (4.18)
24. Ike Davis (4.09)
25. Jordan Pacheco (3.85)
26. Michael Cuddyer (3.59)
27. Jeff Keppinger (3.58)
28. Brandon Belt (3.21)
29. Anthony Rizzo (3.01)
30. Michael Young (2.35)

It's important to note that Eric Hosmer fails to make the list despite ranking between Keppinger and Belt on the standard player rater.  In fact, he barely makes the top 40.  In 2011, Hosmer ranked 14th on a standard player rater but 21st in a 6x6 league.  I definitely expect him to bounce-back, but expectations should be tempered in an OPS league.  Now onto our tiers, where's there's a little more disagreement for who goes where than in the catcher rankings.  This position goes deeper because you should be filling your utility spot with one of these guys if you draft well.

Tier 1 - Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols

  Northrop actually has these three in reverse order so a debate can be made for any order of these three, but they are clearly a step above the rest and should be targeted late in the first round.

Tier 2 - Edwin Encarnacion, Adrian Gonzalez, Billy Butler, Allen Craig, Paul Goldschmidt

  Gonzalez may be the one player least likely to live up to the value of this tier, but he may also be the one most likely to outperform this tier.  Butler is my favorite from this tier and you check out my sleeper article posted last month to see why.  Craig and Goldschmidt played great last year but we have a smaller sample size than the others.  Encarnacion led the position last year and could do it again or he could start to show his age, and he could also lose first base eligibility.

Tier 3 - Freddie Freeman, Paul Konerko, Eric Hosmer, Anthony Rizzo

  I'm not sure if Hosmer belongs here but the rest are much safer and have similar upside then the next list of guys.  Konerko struggled the second half but still has the ability to put up big numbers in what could be his final year.

Tier 4 - Chris Davis, Kendrys Morales, Mark Trumbo, Ike Davis, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Mark Teixeira, Adam LaRoche, Ryan Howard, Nick Swisher

  This group starts with power and ends with old guys that can still rake from time to time.  Morneau and Davis (the worst of the healthy ones, although improvement is likely) ranked 26th and 28th on the player rater for first basemen, but would have been 20th at third base and even higher at the middle-infield positions.  All of these guys have guaranteed at-bats in the middle of the order.

Tier 5 - Garrett Jones, Adam Dunn, Todd Frazier, Lance Berkman, Corey Hart, Brandon Moss, Michael Young, Jeff Keppinger

  I separate these guys from the previous tier because there's more risk and less upside.  Dunn hit 41 home runs last year and still didn't crack the top 20.  Best-case he does it again and that's just not worth investing in.  Frazier and Moss did have success last year but it's far from guaranteed for it to continue.

Second base rankings should be up on Wednesday.

~Antal

Catcher Rankings

One of the most important things to remember when drafting is to know when value for a certain position drops off dramatically.  If you go into the draft with a strategy of targeting specific players and doing the prep to know when you need to draft your favorite players so they can be on your team, you're likely going to end up losing value.  I like to know when I can get comparable value at a position multiple rounds later and when waiting a round or two could cost me significant value.  So for the next two weeks, I will be studying positional tiers for 6x6 scoring and posting my findings here.  Today we start with the catcher.

First we start with what they did last year.  Green indicates a player's value has increased from the standard player rater,  red indicates a player's value has decreased from the standard player rater, and italics indicates a player missed a significant portion of the season.

1. Buster Posey (12.43)
2. Yadier Molina (9.60)
3. Joe Mauer (9.07)
4. Carlos Ruiz (7.43)
5. A.J. Pierzynski (6.30)
6. Wilin Rosario (6.24)
7. Miguel Montero (5.76)
8. Jonathan Lucroy (4.95)
9. Matt Wieters (4.21)
10. Carlos Santana (4.12)
11. Ryan Doumit (4.07)
12. John Jaso (2.71)
13. Mike Napoli (2.51)
14. A.J. Ellis (2.10)
15. Salvador Perez (1.90)
16. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (1.56)
17. Yasmani Grandal (0.94)
18. Brian McCann (0.90)
19. Jesus Montero (0.87)
20. J.P. Arencibia (0.68)

Now onto our tiers.  Northrop and I are in agreement for the most part on who's in what tier, but the order varies significantly.

Tier 1 - Buster Posey
   Posey had a great season last year and he's clearly the best option but the argument is how early he should be taken.  I'll pass on him as a top 20 pick and as a result I won't be owning him in any leagues which is just fine.  

Tier 2 - Joe Mauer, Carlos Santana, Yadier Molina, Matt Wieters

   Both Molina and Mauer had great seasons.  I expect some regression from Molina as he ages but he still belongs in this class.  Santana and Wieters struggled a little last season but still had strong numbers and have both a higher ceiling and higher floor than the other names that outperformed them last year.  Victor Martinez can be at the end of this tier if he's catcher eligible in your league and you believe he can bounce-back.  Otherwise, he belongs somewhere in tier 3 depending on how much doubt you have.

Tier 3 - Miguel Montero, Mike Napoli, Jesus Montero, Wilin Rosario, Salvador Perez, Brian McCann

   This is where things get interesting.  My top two catchers in this tier are Rosario and Perez, who Northrop doesn't even have in this tier.  All of these players have top five potential but plenty of risk whether they're old and fragile or young and inexperienced.  

   

Tier 4 - A.J. Pierzynski, John Jaso, Carlos Ruiz, Alex Avila, Jonathan Lucroy, Russel Martin, Ryan Doumit, J.P. Arencibia, Yasmani Grandal, Wilson Ramos

   So here we have catchers splitting time, missing time, with huge question marks or with limited upside.  I'll be doing my best to grab one of the top 11 or 12 catchers and avoid this tier.  But if you can't I'll point to what Lucroy did despite missing two months last year.  Northrop believes Jaso can turn a decent season in a platoon situation into being a top 10 catcher, which seems very unlikely to me.

I'll welcome any criticism to my rankings as long as you back up your argument.  Look for my first-base preview to be posted early Tuesday.

~Antal