Tuesday, February 12, 2013

First Base Rankings

One of the most important things to remember when drafting is to know when value for a certain position drops off dramatically.  If you go into the draft with a strategy of targeting specific players and doing the prep to know when you need to draft your favorite players so they can be on your team, you're likely going to end up losing value.  I like to know when I can get comparable value at a position multiple rounds later and when waiting a round or two could cost me significant value.  Today we look at first base.

First we start with what they did last year.  Green indicates a player's rank has increased from the standard player rater,  red indicates a player's rank has decreased from the standard player rater,and italics indicates a player missed a significant portion of the season.  I'm leaving out catchers because you don't want to waste two roster spots on a significantly weaker offensive position.



  1. Edwin Encarnacion (13.71)
  2. Prince Fielder (12.57)
  3. Billy Butler (11.31)
  4. Albert Pujols (10.54)
  5. Paul Goldschmidt (9.23)
  6. Joey Votto (8.94)
  7. Allen Craig (8.72)
  8. Adam LaRoche (8.58)
  9. Corey Hart (8.38)
  10. Adrian Gonzalez (8.19)
  11. Paul Konerko (7.76)
  12. Chris Davis (7.46)
  13. Mark Trumbo (7.34)
  14. Nick Swisher (7.12)
  15. Garrett Jones (6.73)
  16. Tyler Colvin (6.47)
  17. Freddie Freeman (6.29)
  18. Adam Dunn (5.54)
  19. Mark Teixeira (4.86)
  20. Brandon Moss (4.82)
  21. Todd Frazier (4.62)
  22. Kendrys Morales (4.60)
  23. Justin Morneau (4.18)
  24. Ike Davis (4.09)
  25. Jordan Pacheco (3.85)
  26. Michael Cuddyer (3.59)
  27. Jeff Keppinger (3.58)
  28. Brandon Belt (3.21)
  29. Anthony Rizzo (3.01)
  30. Michael Young (2.35)

It's important to note that Eric Hosmer fails to make the list despite ranking between Keppinger and Belt on the standard player rater.  In fact, he barely makes the top 40.  In 2011, Hosmer ranked 14th on a standard player rater but 21st in a 6x6 league.  I definitely expect him to bounce-back, but expectations should be tempered in an OPS league.  Now onto our tiers, where's there's a little more disagreement for who goes where than in the catcher rankings.  This position goes deeper because you should be filling your utility spot with one of these guys if you draft well.

Tier 1 - Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols
  Northrop actually has these three in reverse order so a debate can be made for any order of these three, but they are clearly a step above the rest and should be targeted late in the first round.

Tier 2 - Edwin Encarnacion, Adrian Gonzalez, Billy Butler, Allen Craig, Paul Goldschmidt
  Gonzalez may be the one player least likely to live up to the value of this tier, but he may also be the one most likely to outperform this tier.  Butler is my favorite from this tier and you check out my sleeper article posted last month to see why.  Craig and Goldschmidt played great last year but we have a smaller sample size than the others.  Encarnacion led the position last year and could do it again or he could start to show his age, and he could also lose first base eligibility.

Tier 3 - Freddie Freeman, Paul Konerko, Eric Hosmer, Anthony Rizzo
  I'm not sure if Hosmer belongs here but the rest are much safer and have similar upside then the next list of guys.  Konerko struggled the second half but still has the ability to put up big numbers in what could be his final year.

Tier 4 - Chris Davis, Kendrys Morales, Mark Trumbo, Ike Davis, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Mark Teixeira, Adam LaRoche, Ryan Howard, Nick Swisher
  This group starts with power and ends with old guys that can still rake from time to time.  Morneau and Davis (the worst of the healthy ones, although improvement is likely) ranked 26th and 28th on the player rater for first basemen, but would have been 20th at third base and even higher at the middle-infield positions.  All of these guys have guaranteed at-bats in the middle of the order.

Tier 5 - Garrett Jones, Adam Dunn, Todd Frazier, Lance Berkman, Corey Hart, Brandon Moss, Michael Young, Jeff Keppinger
  I separate these guys from the previous tier because there's more risk and less upside.  Dunn hit 41 home runs last year and still didn't crack the top 20.  Best-case he does it again and that's just not worth investing in.  Frazier and Moss did have success last year but it's far from guaranteed for it to continue.

Second base rankings should be up on Wednesday.

~Antal

No comments:

Post a Comment