Third Base Rankings

It's probably not necessary to write the exact same thing at the beginning of each of these posts so we'll try out something a little different.  I'm doing tier rankings for all of the positions and if you disagree with me on any particular player it's probably because a) the player's value is significantly altered because of the OPS category b) you have no idea what you're talking about and you should take a look at what other experts are saying about the player or c) I am overlooking something and I need be corrected.  So by all means, please inform of any short sighting I may have.  I hate being wrong, but I hate even more when I'm wrong and nobody tells me.  I'm not claiming to be an expert here, just somebody with way too much free time and a passion for ranking things.

Before we start ranking players for this year, I believe it's really important to take a look at what was done last year.  Then from that point we decide whether a player can improve, put up similar numbers, or regress; and then we decide by how much and how much variance is possible.  It's really that simple.  But first we start with what they did last year. Green indicates a player's rank has increased from the standard player rater, red indicates a player's rank has decreased from the standard player rater, and italics indicates a player missed significant time last season.

1. Miguel Cabrera (18.62)
2. Adrian Beltre (13.51)
3. Chase Headley (12.76)
4. Aramis Ramirez (11.86)
5. David Wright (11.64)
6. Ryan Zimmerman (8.67)
7. Martin Prado (7.96)
8. Hanley Ramirez (7.48)
9. David Freese (7.05)
10. Alex Rodriguez (5.50)
11. Kyle Seager (5.09)
12. Pedro Alvarez (4.75)
13. Todd Frazier (4.62)
14. Chris Johnson (4.32)
15. Chipper Jones (4.24)
16. Jordan Pacheco (3.85)
17. Evan Longoria (3.84)
18. Brett Lawrie (3.70)
19. Jeff Keppinger (3.58)
20. Pablo Sandoval (3.42)
21. Chris Nelson (3.07)
22. Will Middlebrooks (3.04)
23. Mike Moustakas (2.54)
24. Michael Young (2.35)
25. Eric Chavez (2.11)
26. Trevor Plouffe (2.09)

ESPN projects Kevin Youkilis for a nice bounce-back season, hitting .271 with 83 runs, 21 HR and 84 RBI.   With those stats he would slot in at 10th, ahead of A-Rod and behind Freese.  I'm not buying it, even if he somehow manages to get a full-season of at-bats...  Pacheco and Nelson put up solid numbers in limited action, but I don't see one of them running away with the job.  It's a battle worth watching if you're in a deep league, but not worth investing in until you know...Hanley Ramirez hasn't put up a good OPS since 2009, so don't get too excited.  He's only worth a top 50 pick if you're going to use him as a shortstop.  Now to the tiers!

Tier 1- Miguel Cabrera

   So we're going to skip the argument of why he should be the top third baseman and go straight to why I'm taking him as my first pick overall.  Just because third is deeper this year does not make it as deep as the outfield or first base.  Factoring in position scarcity, ridiculous consistency, and the expected regression for Trout it just makes sense to me.  Trout was still number one last year (19.74), but it was closer than in a standard league and nobody is expecting Trout to match what he did last year.

Tier 2 - Evan Longoria, David Wright, Adrian Beltre

  Don't let age or injury history scare you, these guys will perform when they are on the field.  If you want Longo, you'll have to take him a round earlier but it's worth it.  The only thing keeping him out of being a first-round pick is the injury history.  Until he begins to show his age, I prefer Beltre over Wright, but age can be sneaky.

Tier 3 - Hanley Ramirez, Chase Headley, Brett Lawrie, Ryan Zimmerman, Pablo Sandoval, Martin Prado, Aramis Ramirez.

  I didn't put Sandoval in this tier; Northrop doesn't have Zimmerman or Ramirez in this tier; but it is what it is and all of these guys are worth taking in the top 100 picks.  Lawrie was one of many players to go through a sophomore slump, but his pedigree suggests he should improve greatly as he matures.  Headley, Zimmerman, Prado, and Aramis Ramirez had really solid seasons and if they can do it again you'll be getting great value.  Sandoval has been up and down his whole career but definitely has the ability to put up similar or better numbers than the rest of these guys.

Tier 4 - David Freese, Mike Moustakas, Manny Machado, Will Middlebrooks

  So here we have David Freese and some young players who haven't yet hit their prime.  Machado probably has the highest ceiling but he's so young there's just as good of a chance that he goes back to the minors than that he makes the top five.  Despite the injury history, Freese probably has the highest floor and he was MVP of the 2011 postseason.  You could easily argue that Kyle Seager belongs in this tier or that Middlebrooks belongs in the next tier, although Middlebrooks appears to have more upside right now.

Tier 5 - Kyle Seager, Pedro Alvarez, Todd Frazier, Michael Young, Kevin Youkilis, Trevor Plouffe, Jeff Keppinger.

  Here we have an interesting mixture or young question marks and old question marks.  Can Alvarez and Plouffe give us anything besides 20-30 HR?  Do Young and Youkilis have anything left in the tank?  Can Frazier's success continue?  I wish I could answer these questions for you.  You'll see Keppinger at the end of every base position I've posted and all I can tell you is that he should start most days at third for the White Sox.  He had a solid season last year but those numbers aren't inline with his career stats and he's only reached 500 at-bats once in his 8-year career.  What he does this year might be one the biggest mysteries of them all.

Shortstop rankings are coming out Friday morning and then my outfield rankings will take all weekend and will hopefully be ready for Monday morning.  I haven't decided how deep my outfield rankings will be yet so if you have any suggestions let me know.

~Antal